INSTITUTIONAL THRESHOLD MECHANISMS IN NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS: COMPARATIVE CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF SAHEL PASTORAL CONFLICTS, AMAZON EXTRACTIVE CONFLICTS, AND INDONESIAN TENURE EXTRACTIVE CONFLICTS

Abstract

This study addresses a key theoretical gap in political ecology by developing and testing the Institutional Threshold Configuration Framework to explain why natural resource conflicts generate divergent conservation outcomes across regions. Comparative analysis of three conflict types—Sahel pastoral (recovery), Amazon extractive (degradation), and Indonesian tenure-extractive (mixed)—identifies four institutional variables with nonlinear threshold effects: enforcement infrastructure density, community governance capacity, permanent extraction infrastructure, and political communication resonance. Using mixed methods—Structural Equation Modeling (n = 1,689 households), Difference-in-Differences, Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 127 studies, Hansen/UMD satellite data (2000–2024), and 87 elite interviews—we determine quantitative thresholds: enforcement density >2.8 posts/1,000 km², community participation >65%, infrastructure coverage <20%, and communication resonance >4.0/5.0. Findings reveal a state capacity paradox: weak capacity protects ecosystems in mobile conflicts (Sahel) by delaying re-occupation but accelerates degradation in extractive conflicts (Amazon, Papua) through infrastructure lock-in. Within Indonesia, East Kalimantan reduced deforestation by 41% with high communication resonance (4.3/5.0) despite moderate capacity, while Papua saw a 67% increase with low resonance (2.1/5.0). Political communication is the key mediator (path coefficient 0.62, p<0.001), translating institutional capacity into compliance. The framework shifts political ecology from descriptive to predictive science and offers immediate policy relevance for Indonesia’s 1.2 million-hectare annual deforestation crisis, potentially protecting 78% (940,000 hectares) of threatened customary forests across 50 priority areas.

Keywords: Institutional Thresholds, Political Communication, State Capacity Paradox, Conflict-Conservation Nexus, Indonesia Deforestation, Comparative Causal Mechanisms