Global Energy Crisis and Thailand’s Vulnerability: Policy Implications of the US–Israel–Iran Conflict on Energy Security

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the impact of the global energy crisis, driven by the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, on Thailand’s energy security. The study adopts a qualitative approach, employing document analysis of international reports, policy documents, and academic sources to examine the interconnections between geopolitics, global energy markets, and Thailand’s energy structure. The findings indicate that tensions in the Middle East have increased risks to global energy supply, particularly oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), through critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have led to significant price volatility in global energy markets, directly affecting energy-importing countries like Thailand. Given Thailand’s energy structure, which is heavily dependent on natural gas and increasingly reliant on LNG imports, the country is highly vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply uncertainties. The study further finds that the energy crisis has significant macroeconomic impacts, including rising electricity prices, inflation, and increased production costs, which in turn affect household welfare and business competitiveness. Meanwhile, Thailand’s policy responses have largely focused on short-term measures such as subsidies and price controls, which are insufficient to address long-term structural vulnerabilities. This article argues that the energy crisis is not merely an external shock but a reflection of Thailand’s structural weaknesses, particularly its dependence on energy imports and limited diversification of energy sources. Therefore, Thailand must undertake comprehensive energy policy reforms, emphasizing diversification of the energy mix, reduction of LNG dependency, acceleration of renewable energy transition, and strengthening resilience against global energy market volatility.