The Impact of the United States’ Tariff Policy on the Thai Economy: An Economic Analysis

Abstract

This academic article aims to analyze the impact of the United States’ tariff policy under the “America First” framework, which was initiated during the administration of President Donald Trump and continues to influence the global trading system today. The focus is placed on examining its implications for the Thai economy, which is highly dependent on exports and deeply integrated into global supply chains. The study applies theoretical frameworks from international trade theories, including the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of protectionism, as well as the concept of spillover effects and trade diversion. The analysis reveals that the U.S. tariff policy affects Thailand through several key channels. In terms of trade, Thailand may benefit in the short term by serving as an alternative export base to China. However, prolonged uncertainty poses risks to investor confidence. In terms of investment, Thailand has the potential to become a new manufacturing hub but faces rising competition from other regional players such as Vietnam and Indonesia. In the financial sector, the Thai economy experiences volatility in the value of the baht and cross-border capital flows, driven largely by external factors. This article proposes policy recommendations to address these challenges, including the promotion of high value-added industries, diversification of trade risks through new free trade agreements, acceleration of infrastructure development, and the enhancement of competitiveness through innovation and human capital development. These strategic directions aim to strengthen Thailand’s resilience and adaptability in the face of ongoing changes in the global economic landscape, ensuring sustainable and stable long-term growth.