Thailand’s Low Birth Rate Crisis: A 'State Failure' in Ensuring Child Security and the Challenges of Restoring Policy Legitimacy

Abstract

This academic article aimed to analyze the crisis and impacts of Thailand's continuously declining birth rate, which has reached a critical low in 70 years. The analysis indicated that a major cause stemmed from the failure of government administration to provide comprehensive security, both in terms of welfare provision and a social environment conducive to child-rearing. Although the government has implemented financial subsidies, such as the 600 baht per month allowance for newborns, these measures were found to be insufficient, because it represented less than 5 percent of the actual expenses a family had to bear. Beyond educational costs and social competition, the reproductive-age population, particularly the middle class, faced financial vulnerability from high healthcare costs for emerging and seasonal childhood illnesses, which can reach hundreds of thousands of baht per instance. Furthermore, current urban planning hindered quality of life, increasing time and travel costs. As a result, younger generations perceived childbearing as having an opportunity cost too high for government welfare to compensate. This situation reflected a “welfare vacuum,” which undermined confidence and led to the implicit rejection of birth promotion policies. This article, therefore, used the framework of policy legitimacy and the welfare state to propose that the government urgently restored confidence through a paradigm shift from targeted assistance to universal child welfare and the development of family-friendly cities. This aimed to create a safe environment and reduce real-world costs, leading to the long-term sustainability of the nation-state.